About Project

Abstract

Households are seen as one of key players in the process of energy transition. This sector account for the main share of final energy consumption, providing a great possibility for reduction of energy intensity, emissions of pollutants and GHG, a shift to renewable energy sources (RES), and an increase in energy self-sufficiency. Still, the transition process can be followed by a high level of uncertainty along the progress path, as the results of the whole energy branch are governed by the decisions and associated outcomes of huge number of heterogenous consumers. Decisions are influenced by the purchasing power of homeowners, habits, attitudes, etc., as well as their mutual interaction. Directing and managing households’ energy transition is a challenging task, which cannot be achieved by relying solely on technical knowledge.
The project aims to formulate and suggest a novel framework for guiding and directing the transition of the branch of numerous heterogenous consumers, by integrating a forward-looking engineering approach in the utilization of RES, the participatory approach supported by all actors involved and the agent-based modeling (ABM).
Qualitative outcomes from the backcasting process will be translated into exploratory scenarios by an energy modeling tool, which will result in a quantitative outcome and visualization of pathways. The ambition of integrating ABM is to examine the adoption capacity of innovative energy technologies in households and get more accurate answer to questions about how different households influence each other, and which policy instruments will result in a higher acceptance rate. Integration will provide the dynamic framework for monitoring, analysis and evaluation of energy policy instruments and their effects in order to act in time. The framework is not country specific and can be applied at the level of city, region, or country, or replicated to other sectors of energy consumption or/and production with numerous actors.

Concept and methodology

The project starts with an analysis of currently used technologies in households and mapping and assessment of energy-efficient technologies aiming to increase RES share in households (WP2). The survey of households (WP3) will describe policy, socio-economic, and cultural factors (behaviors, habits and attitudes) related to energy consumption in households. The outcomes of WP2 will be used for modelling of advanced technologies based on RES, and optimized retrofit options for households (WP4), while the outcomes from WP2, WP3 and WP4 will provide energy, environmental, financial, socio-economic, and cultural parameters for households’ modeling and development of households’ ABM (WP5). WP5 will establish an innovative framework for integrating the “top down” approach in energy system modeling and “bottom up” ABM approach with the PB process, aiming to support the planning of energy transition in the households. The functionality and feasibility of the methodology will be tested, verified, and applied within the project by the implementation of a case study in WP 6 – developing a roadmap for households’ energy transition based on RES for the selected municipality up to 2050. Activities related to project management (WP1), as well as dissemination and communication (WP7), will be implemented for the whole project duration.
Local energy development is a highly sensitive issue, closely connected to overall urban development. Besides energy and engineering aspects, it tackles climate change, environmental, and social problems. The household sector is the main energy consumer at the local level. Due to the heterogeneities among household individuals and their social interactions, it is very difficult to regulate household energy consumption without a deep understanding of household energy consumption behaviors.
The novel approach to energy planning is based on a tailor-made procedure in accordance with RES potential availability, affordability of technologies, and the acceptability of plans provided by local stakeholders (associations of consumers, NGOs, local utilities, local government, associations of professionals, equipment manufacturers, etc.), but taking into consideration real behavior in households’ consumption.
This approach underlines that environmental, engineering, economic and social aspects are inseparable in energy system analysis and development. The project idea and objectives will be achieved through a methodology consisting of three phases:

1. Data collection
2. Development of a new methodological framework for planning and managing energy transition of the households
3. Implementation and verification of the proposed methodological framework